The announcement of potential meetings between Trump, Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif, and Army Chief Asim Munir, possibly on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, has raised eyebrows. This comes after Munir previously visited the US and following Sharif's recent trip to China. Analysts suggest that Pakistan's military leadership is accompanying its civilian counterpart to ensure a united front in seeking aid, much as they have done with China and during past regional conflicts. This unusual pairing of a head of state and army chief on diplomatic visits is a rare sight outside of Pakistan. Simultaneously, a US trade delegation, led by Trade Representative Brandon Lynch, is currently in India for discussions aimed at normalizing trade relations, which have been strained by Trump's previous tariff hikes, notably a 50% tariff. This timing suggests Trump is attempting to manage multiple regional relationships at once, potentially seeking to leverage India's growing economic power while also keeping Pakistan within the US sphere of influence.
However, the trade discussions are not straightforward. The US is particularly keen on selling its agricultural products to India, specifically genetically modified (GM) corn and non-vegetarian milk. American corn, produced at a significantly lower cost ($0.18 per kg compared to India's support price of $0.29 per kg), presents a tempting market for the US, especially as China, previously a major buyer, has drastically reduced its GM corn imports by developing its own high-protein varieties. India, which produces around 42 million tons of corn annually and is a net exporter, also imports about 0.97 million tons, primarily from Myanmar and Ukraine. The US sees an opportunity, particularly with India's aggressive push for E20 petrol, which requires ethanol – a product that can be derived from corn. This could be a "middle path": India might agree to import American GM corn exclusively for ethanol production, not for consumption by humans or livestock, thereby satisfying US demands without directly harming Indian farmers or compromising food safety standards. While such a move could reduce fuel costs and help meet environmental targets, it raises concerns about reliance on foreign GM crops and its long-term impact on India's agricultural sovereignty. India's current policy imposes high tariffs on corn imports above a certain threshold and expresses caution towards GM crops, citing unknown health effects and potential dependency.
Beyond trade, Trump's outreach to Pakistan also has significant geopolitical implications. Following recent events, including an alleged Israeli strike in Qatar, the US is concerned about its standing in the Arab and Islamic world. Qatar, a long-time US ally hosting the CENTCOM headquarters, recently called for a united Arab-Islamic force against Israel, with Pakistan vocally supporting the idea of a "NATO-like" alliance. Trump's engagement with Pakistan's leadership could be an attempt to reassure them and prevent them from aligning against US interests in the region. However, Pakistan's perceived shiftiness – supporting Arab nations one day, then seeking deals with the US the next – causes discomfort among other regional players. For India, the critical takeaway is to remain vigilant. While resuming trade talks could be beneficial, New Delhi must navigate these negotiations carefully, particularly regarding GM crops, to ensure any agreements serve India's long-term interests and do not create dependencies or compromise its food security and farmers' livelihoods. The current geopolitical chess game demands India's astute diplomacy to avoid pitfalls and secure its strategic autonomy.
